Population data might upset the apple cart of political caste calculations

The nearly decade-long debate over the caste break-up in Karnataka’s population seems to have reached a crucial stage, with the Cabinet accepting the Socio-Economic and Educational Survey (Caste Census). It is expected to have deep political repercussions, turning the current population narratives and claims of communities upside down.

Already contested by the land-owning and politically dominant communities – Veerashaiva-Lingayats and Vokkaligas – the figures would spur them to now mount pressure on the government not to accept the recommendations, even though the reservation matrix has been proposed to be increased, including a hike in quota for them significantly.

Reduced numbers

The Veerashaiva-Lingayats, who dominate the political landscape in the North and Central Karnataka region, and claimed to be between 18% and 22% of the State’s population, are now 11% as per the survey report. Their population is pegged at 66.35 lakh. So far, nine Chief Ministers of the State have come from the community. Similarly, the Vokkaliga population, which is claimed to be around 14% to 16% in the Old Mysore region, is now at 10.29%. Their population is about 61.58 lakh. The gap between the two communities is less than 1%, as per the survey conducted by the Karnataka State Commission for Backward Classes.

Though the proposed reservation for Lingayat-Veerashaiva has gone from the current 5% to 8%, a source from the Akhila Bharatha Veerashaiva Mahasabha said that their “suspicion of the survey data on population had come true.” “This is an unbelievable figure and we will fight. We do not agree with the data,” said the source.

Even Vokkaliga Sangha sources claimed that their numbers in the survey do not match the numbers on the ground, and that ‘caste confusion’ during enumeration had reduced their number. A total of seven Chief Ministers who have served the State are from the community. So far, five Chief Ministers, hailing from Other Backward Classes (including incumbent Siddaramaiah), and two Brahmins have ruled the State. The OBC population is estimated to be around 70% of the State’s population.

Politically, the influence of the land-owning communities spreads to 51 constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. The number of Veerashaiva-Lingayats elected to the 224-member assembly is upwards of 50, while it is upwards of 40 members for Vokkaligas.

Muslim, SC/ST numbers

The caste census puts Muslims as a single block with the highest population in the State, with about 12.58% or about 75.25 lakhs.

The Scheduled Castes together constitute 18.2% or about 1.09 crore of the State’s population and Scheduled Tribes constitute 7.1% or 43.81 lakh, who together get 24.1% reservation.

The General category, which is not in the reservation matrix given on the basis of socio, economic and educational backwardness, comprising Brahmins, Arya Vaishya, Mudaliars, Nagartharu and a section of Jains are about 29.74 lakh or about 4.9% of the population. This category is, however, eligible for 10% reservation under economically-weaker sections (EWS).