Between the U.S. tariff “psychodrama,” or, per Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s quip, “Thursday,” and the growing evidence that President Trump’s threats of Canada’s sovereignty are quite serious, it’s been a stressful time for Canadians who are looking for stability.
That may not come quite yet. Even as Liberal Party members overcome registration problems to vote on Mr. Trudeau’s successor at the helm of the party and the country, a federal election looms.
The protracted instability — one that could yield three Canadian prime ministers in one year — is reflected in opinion research, where voters’ views on who is best to manage this generational crisis Canada finds itself in, seem to be very much in flux.
To understand this moment better, we spoke to Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a research center.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Much has changed since Mr. Trump came into office.
If this was a telenovela, if this was a soap opera, Donald Trump has inserted himself as the main character and the biggest plot twist to Canadian domestic politics.
[Read: How Trump’s ‘51st State’ Canada Talk Came to Be Seen as Deadly Serious]
How has support for the Liberals shifted since Mr. Trudeau’s resignation on Jan. 6?
We saw polling on Dec. 31 that showed the Liberals down to 16 percent in voter intent. It was one of the driving forces that really put the final nail in the coffin for Trudeau’s political career. One cannot help but reflect on timing — the cruelty of timing — where if he had not had that blowout with Chrystia Freeland in mid-December, if he had not tried to replace her with Mark Carney, he still would have probably puttered through.
And among Conservative voters?
Pierre Poilievre had spent the better part of last year sitting on a very comfortable 20-point lead and making the case that the ballot question had to be about change. It had to be about carbon pricing. It had to be about a tired Liberal government and a tired Liberal brand needing to be shown the door. The ballot question has been completely reframed to which political leader is best suited to take on Trump. What we’ve seen in the last few days and weeks is the Conservative Party caught somewhat flat-footed.
[Read: Trump’s Threats Against Canada Upend Conservative’s Playbook]
How are Canadians feeling?
Canada is having a moment. Canadians are having a moment when their blood is up. According to some of our polling, 55 percent of Canadians say that they’re feeling angry about the rhetoric and the tariffs; 37 percent say they feel betrayed; 30 percent say they feel anxious.
What are some of characteristics in a future leader that might be weighing on Liberal Party voters?
One might have thought that Chrystia Freeland would have a tougher hill to climb than Mark Carney, simply because she carries the baggage of the Trudeau government. With Carney, the challenge is he’s trying to style himself as an outsider. But he’s been close to the Liberal government as an adviser and as a well-wisher for some time. The bigger challenge for both of them, but especially for Carney, is what kind of campaigner is he? History is littered with the detritus of shiny new leaders who are sat or placed atop of old, tired party brands. We saw this in 1984 with the leader who succeeded Pierre Trudeau. His name was John Turner. He surged in the polls and then kind of collapsed. History tells us that what goes up can come down.
What effect could Mr. Trump’s threats of tariffs and on Canada’s sovereignty have on a general election?
The challenge for Poilievre is he is somewhat sidelined by not being one of the main protagonists. Before Trump, and before all of this, it was going to be the Liberals versus the Conservatives; a Trudeau successor versus Pierre Poilievre. Now, it is whoever versus Trump, and that does squeeze Poilievre a little bit. How does he differentiate himself enough from the governing Liberals, while also making the case to an electorate that’s very angry with Trump, including the majority of Conservative voters who are very angry with Trump. You threaten sovereignty; that has an impact regardless of where Canadians sit on the political spectrum.
Trans Canada
Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Canada bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the country.
Vjosa Isai is a reporter for The New York Times in Toronto.
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